Analysis of Run Performance Since 2006 - Comparison of Training Data to Race Results

This post is a look at my run data since 2006.  Unfortunately, like the bike, I only have full run data from 2007, only results from 2006.  In 2009, as I have mentioned in the past, I had a bad stress fracture and basically did not run for 6 months of that year, and the beginning of 2010.  So, I have no data for 2009.
Since 2009, I have been hesitant to run as much or as hard as I did prior to the stress fracture.  I am sure that this is part of the reason for my slower times since 2008. 
Near the end of 2012, I have began to do my training faster, and I have done longer training workouts in 2013.  I think I am getting over my fear of re-injuring my leg.  I have been hesitant in training to go as faster or as far as I require to go faster, but that changed in 2013.
So the plan was to go longer and faster in 2013, with the hope I can improve my run speed to 2008 times, or faster results.  In 2008, I ran my fastest 5K (22:33 = 7:16min/mi), 10K (46:36 = 7:31min/mi), 2mi (12:58 = 6:29min/mi), and 8K (36:40 = 7:20min/mi), in 2009 before stopping due to stress fracture.  I have not been close to those times since then. 
In 2013 I ran an open 5K at 22:06 (7:08/mi), my 8K time was 38:10 (7:41/mi), and 2 mi was 14:29 (7:15/mi).  I did not run an open 10K.  So, I was able to put together a fastest 5k in many years, and the 8K was the fastest since 2009, run with my stress fracture.
2006 is heavily weighted with open runs (11) and duathlons (5).  I have done less and less open runs since then and more and more duathlons and triathlons.  This year I did more open runs than previously, two 5Ks, four trail races, and an 8k.
The larger range in 2008 is due to my slow run time at Alcatraz and the 70.3 I did that year.  The large range in 2010 is due to the two half-IMs I did.  My average in 2010 is depressed due to the fact I took it easier in the first few races of the year as I came back from injury. 2011-2013 I did only sprint and olympic distance, so the shorter distances kept the range tighter
The data in the table and graphs is in Seconds/Mile, rather than Minutes/Mile because it is easier to graph in Excel.
The graph of comparing total training time to fastest speed and average speed shows no real correlation between the two.
Based on the graph comparing total run time to fastest and average, an argument can be made that more time is better.  The problem is one data point is at the high end and the rest are at the low end.  I have that group around 60 hours and my times are about the same.  It would be interesting to get back around 90 hours, but I would be afraid I might do some damage to my leg(s) again. In 2014, I hope to continue similar to 2013.  Keep in the 60+ hour range for the 12 month period, do some longer runs, over an hour, and more speed work.  I think in 2013 I did a better job with speed work and getting in some runs that were around an hour.

Run Data Table

Comparison of Run Training Time to Average Run Race Pace

Comparison of Run Training Time to Fastest Run Race Pace

Comparison of Total Training Time to Average Run Race Pace

Comparison of Total Training Time to Fastest Run Race Pace

Analysis of Bike Performance Since 2006 - Comparison of Training to Bike Race Speed

This is the second of three posts were I will compare my training to my race performance.  I previously posted my swim analysis.

I have compiled my bike data since 2007, to look at my performance compared to my training time.  I have results for 2006, but no training data.  I did not start tracking training data until 2007, which is unfortunate, since it would be nice to have training data from the start to compare performance data from the start.

I compiled all the bike speed data (TT, triathlon, and duathlon) and put that in a table with bike training time data and total training time data.  The table and all charts below are data from October to October, except 2007 which is Jan-Sept, since I have no data from 2006.  At the end of the year I put out my calendar year training data.
Click on the table enlarge. 

Bike Data Table

 

My slowest bike speed for any given year does not vary much from year-to-year. Slowest time, 2008, was from Escape from Alcatraz, very steep, hilly course. Also, I was probably doing too much sight-seeing while riding. In reality, my bike data does not vary much from year-to-year, it is pretty flat. If you throw out my slowest from 2008 and take my next slowest, my range would be about 3mph for each year, except 2006 and 2008.
In 2006, my average bike speed is about 19MPH. I basically flattened out after 2008, averaging about 21.5MPH.  After my injury in 2009, I also stopped paying for a coach in that year, I have not shown much improvement since then.  I improved from 2006 to 2008. During that time the volume and intensity went up dramatically.
If you look at the data, I can train about 90+hours over the 12 month period, at the effort I am putting in, and stay consistent.  The three years that I trained, and raced, the most 2008, 2010, and 2011, I had the fastest bike.  2008 had less bike than the other two, but it had a lot more running and swimming.
Also note, in 2006 I was riding a Lemond Sarthe road bike with clip-on aero bars and no race wheels.  Starting in 2007, I raced with a tri-bike and race wheels.  Also, 2006 is duathlons and TTs, no triathlons.
In 2013, my fastest, slowest, and average are all about the same as 2012.  I was not able to get over the 23MPH "hump".  I put in about the same bike time in the 12 month period, Oct 2012 to Oct 2013.  I think I transferred a lot of my hard effort this last year into running and swimming, and did not put in the hard bike I had put in previous years.  Hopefully, in 2014 I can get in more spin classes, which I think will help my speed.
I think I also need a refit on both my bikes.  I had some nagging hip soreness after some of my races, and bike workouts.  I think something has changed with me.

Select any of the tables below to enlarge. 

Total Bike Training Time Compared to Average Bike Race Speed

Total Bike Training Time Compared to Fastest Bike Race Speed

Total Training Time Compared to Average Bike Race Speed

Total Training Time Compared to Fastest Bike Race Speed

When comparing my total training time, or bike training time, to average or fastest, the data points trend the same.  So, no real correlation between the two, or they are directly correlated, but there does not appear to be a negative correlation between my total training time and bike speed.
As long as I am doing only duathlons, sprint triathlons, and olympic distance triathlons I can stick to the 70-100 hours.  If I do a 70.3, or longer (IM not going to happen), I would need to increase my training time.  To improve my speed, I will have to, have to, increase my output.  I will have to train harder, not longer.  I know over the last two years I have not put as much effort into training, even though I have put in the time. So, to improve that max speed and average speed I need to train harder.  It has been said many times, "You need to train faster to go faster".  This is something we all know, and I know, it just needs to be put into action.  Ideally, in the 12 month period I would train over 100 hours and have structured speed work.

Yearly Analysis of Swim Performance Since 2007 - Comparison of Performance to Training

I (re)started swimming in 2007, after not swimming since high school. I did duathlons in 2006 and then decided to try triathlons in 2007, so I started swimming in March 2007. 
I hired a coach in 2008 and got swim workouts that I did on my own, typically 3 days a week. I started Masters in early 2009, typically 3 days a week.  You can see significant yardage jumps from 2007 to 2008, and I have more or less maintained that yardage since then.  Something of a spike in 2009 and 2010, when I swam more due to my stress fracture.
In 2013, I continue to swim in the same pool I have swam in since 2009, but with a new Master's coach. 
I have shown improvement with time, but more or less flattened out.  Since the swim distance on swim courses is somewhat suspect, it is hard to determine really how fast you are going.  The only true test of improvement and how fast you are is in the pool, with a certified distance and controlled conditions. 
Some of the swims in triathlons have the timing mat immediately out of the water, some you have a decent run up before you get to it, so that is added into your time. 
I do know that when I started, it was 2+ minutes for a 100s in a set.  Now I am more in the area of 1:20-1:30, sometimes faster.  My fastest off the block, which was last spring was a 1:06, and my fastest 200, in water start, was a 2:44, which was this summer. 
I definitely think that my stroke has gotten better and I have gotten faster.  Even though my race times do not reflect the fact that I have gotten faster.  Still, I do not think I am aggressive enough in the open water.
Below is the data table.  The table in the charts are data from October to October.  My times in the table and the charts are in seconds/100yards because it is easier to plot.  The unusually fast time in 2011 is the Twin Cities Triathlon swim in the Mississippi.  In 2009, I only did two races, the reason for the narrow range, one was a relay triathlon and one was a sprint triathlon, where I walked the run.
There is a huge jump in yardage and time as I go from swimming on my own, to getting coached workouts, to going to Masters, and my race pace improves, and then there is flattening out.  I know, for sure, I have gotten faster in the pool over the last two years, especially this year.  It has not translated to my open water swimming.  Again, I am pretty sure this has more to do with how aggressive I swim, not with my level of physical fitness.  I have to be more aggressive.  I think, I know, I have the fitness and ability to swim faster in races.
My fastest race times are probably the 1:24/100yards - 1:29/100yards.
In 2013, it shows me swimming less from Oct 2012 - Oct 2013, because I took some time off from Oct 2012 - Dec 2012, and a little less in Jan 2013.  My totals for 2013, from Jan-Dec, will beat the same time period from 2012, and probably be the 3rd most yardage, and time, I have put in.  Oct 2013 - Oct 2014 will be pretty high in yards and time.  The new Masters I am in works me much harder than previous years.  I think the increased yardage this year, has helped my overall fitness, and the stroke work has helped my overall swim.
I have said it once, I have said it a thousand times, and I will say it again.  As a beginning triathlete, the best thing you can do is swim a lot and get conditioned in the swim.  I have heard/seen, so many beginning triathletes say they will just "get through the swim", barely do any swim training, do all bike and run, and then get to race day and have a bad/horrible swim, and up having the rest of the race be difficult because of it.  When the swim is comfortable, in the sense you can do it and it is not stressful, and you are conditioned for it, the whole race is "easier".

Swim Data Table

Comparison of Total Hours Swimming to Average Race Pace for that Year

Comparison of Total Yards Swimming to Average Race Pace for that Year

Comparison of Total Hours Training to Average Race Pace for that Year

Comparison of Total Yards Swimming to Fastest Race Pace for that Year

Comparison of Total Hours Swimming to Fastest Race Pace for that Year

 

Review of my 2013 Duathlon Results and Past Duathlon Results

Three duathlons this year. Gear West at the beginning and Dousman at the end, and the accidental duathlon in June.  Manitou Sprint Tri turned into a duathlon because of bad weather.  It was probably some of the worst weather I have ever raced in.  The runs felt pretty good, but the bike was horrible.  Battering wind and rain.  Just bad. 
Gear West went ok.  It rained horribly before, and the start was delayed.  My run was slower than previous years, but I am not sure the distance was totally correct.  My GPS had me running a little further than the stated distance.  The course has changed around a little bit the last couple of years.  I did like the course this year.  Bike course was the same as always, and my time was pretty close to years past.  No big breakthrough.  Dousman was a little faster than last year.  I was happy with my race that day.  I would say that my performance this year is pretty average.

Below are my results from this year's races.  Click to enlarge

Below are the charts that compare my year-to-year average duathlon results.  Below the charts is a table of the data.  All pace is in fractions of a minute.  2006-2008, I show improvement in all fronts.  After my injury in 2009, there is a spike in 2010 as I come back from injury.  Basically, last four seasons I am up and down.  I think my times at Manitou Sprint dragged me down on the bike, and my slow runs at GW Du dragged me down on my runs for this year.  For some reason, my T1 average time was much better.  In the end, I was a little slower than my average this year, but around the average.  Again, nothing spectacular, but I did it.
I plan on doing GW Du and Dousman in 2014.  I think I need to do more bike\run and run\bike speed bricks to improve my performance.  GW is always a tough Du.  It is a tough cross country like run course, coupled with a fairly tough bike.  This off season I hope to do more run strength work to prepare for that, and for better running in 2014.

Average First Run Pace Year-to-Year (Lower Pace is Faster\Better)

Average T1 and T2 Times from Year-to-Year

Average Bike Speed from Year-to-Year (Higher is better)

Average Second Run Pace Year-to-Year (Lower Pace is Faster\Better)

Average Overall Pace Year-to-Year (Lower Pace is Faster\Better)

Chart of Averages